• Revenue £4,288.1m up +5.6%, up +6.7% at constant currency (CC)
• Operating profit was £143.8m, a margin of 3.4%, down 330 bps

The decline in profits was anticipated with a warning given by the company to this effect only a few weeks ago. In this period, Serco reported a net exceptional charge of £90.5m, reflecting principally the Electronic Monitoring settlement and one-off costs, together with an estimated £21.0m of other indirect costs in relation to the UK Government reviews.

As forecast by the company in its H1 announcements, growth slowed down, in H2 2013. In fact it halved.

Contract wins in H2 2013 included an ITO contract extension for the EU and an FM contract with the Canadian defense. But BPO contract wins completely dried up in H2 2013. This perhaps reflects the problems of Serco’s Global Services division which was most impacted by the electronic monitoring debacle, reporting -350bps decline in operating margin.

Serco admits that clients did not want to talk to it until the issues had been resolved. New contracts have started to come in once again (such as the Lincolnshire Council contract) since Serco settled the matter with the U.K. government.

Apart from the MoJ expenses, divisional margin came under pressure from upfront expenditure on existing contracts. These included:

• A ~£15m working capital investment in transformation for Shop Direct in 2013 and further anticipated but smaller outflow in 2014. Returns are expected to begin from the contract in year 3 (FY15).
• Suffolk Community Healthcare redundancy cash costs of c£5m; no effect expected in 2014.  

It has not been an easy year for Serco in some of its international businesses either. In Australia, a change of government and policy has resulted in revenue attrition in its contract with the Department of Immigration and Citizenship for which Serco runs a number of detention centers.

In America, the outlook remains uncertain due to Federal funding challenges around programmes and contracts, but Serco has won a number of new contracts in the region, including the $1.25bn 5-year federal Eligibility Support (ES) contract by the United States Department of Health and Human Services' Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) but this is likely to be at relatively low margin.

Serco has done well to achieve topline growth despite its annus horribilis. 2014 will be a year of repair and rebuild for Serco. The new CEO, Rupert Soames, and a number of new non-executive board appointees, are likely to go to start with a major review of the business. Serco's strategy of diversification should help with this activity, providing it with a broad set of options for rebuilding the business.

The terms of the contract require Northgate to:

• Modernize the ICT including desktops and servers
• Extend its regional business center, Northgate House, in Hartlepool to increase its workforce from 235 to 300
• Set up the new Northgate Academy, in conjunction with Hartlepool College of Further Education to offer up to 35 IT modern apprenticeships over the term of the contract

The partnership deal is to save the council >£1m a year.

The delivery center in Hartlepool is one of a number of key centers that Northgate PS is establishing to deliver shared services to the public sector. We understand that there will soon be 235 staff working on:

• Hartlepool Council’s IT contract
• Revenue and benefits services for a number of local authorities
• The Blue Badge improvement scheme for the DfT
• Welfare funds administration for ~nine local authorities in England.

We expect some consolidation of Northgate PS non-strategic delivery centers as the company focuses on establishing the four key centers.  

NelsonHall will be publishing Northgate PS' public sector shared services BPO vendor assessment very soon.

NelsonHall's Global Public Sector Shared Services BPO Market Report and vendor positioning, NEAT, will be published in March 2014.

Serco has updated its guidance for 2013 and 2014 following its clearance by the U.K. government to bid for new contracts.  Serco expects a mid-single digit percentage organic decline on 2013 revenue due to:

• Lower levels of incremental work won across the group to date
• Attrition from contracts lost such as electronic monitoring
• Volume reductions in its Australian immigration detention services contract
• Assumptions as to the extent to which it will be successful in securing further rebids and extensions as well as new bid opportunities during the year
• Adverse currency movements in 2013.  The impact of this has reduced revenues in 2013 by ~£50m and profits by £8m.

Adjusted operating margin is anticipated to decline by ~50 to 100 basis points on 2013 due to greater than previously envisaged margin reduction resulting from the revenue impacts described above, and the incremental costs of the agreed corporate renewal programme.

Serco's ongoing portfolio management resulted in further non-core disposals in 2013. These businesses contributed £43m of revenue and £7m of profit up to the point of disposal last year and will not contribute to revenue and profits in 2014.

In 2014, Serco expects:

• Continuing additional costs of £10m a year related to the corporate renewal programme within its adjusted operating profit
• One-off costs incurred in 2014 of ~ £15m for external advisers and other directly-related costs of programme implementation, including initial training and systems set-up
• A further restructuring charge estimated at £10-£15m will be incurred in 2014 to implement reductions in headcount and related costs.

Market consensus for 2014 Adjusted operating profit is currently £277m but Serco anticipates a result that could be 10-20% lower than this for ongoing activities, on a constant currency basis.

The profit warning came on the same day that Serco announced clearance by the U.K. government to bid for new contracts. Serco announced that it expects a mid-single digit percentage organic decline on 2013 revenue due to a number of factros including:

•     Lower levels of incremental work won across the group to date
•     Attrition from contracts lost such as electronic monitoring
•     Volume reductions in its Australian immigration detention services contract.

Adjusted operating margin is anticipated to decline by ~50 to 100 basis points on 2012 due to greater than previously envisaged margin reduction resulting from the revenue impacts described above, and the incremental costs of the agreed corporate renewal program.

In 2014, Serco expects continuing additional costs of  up to £40m related to the corporate renewal programme, external advisers and further restructuring.

Market consensus for 2014 adjusted operating profit is currently £277m but Serco anticipates a result that could be 10-20% lower than this for ongoing activities, on a constant currency basis.

Serco's financial woes have been compounded by a change of Government in Australia, its second largest market. Tony Abbott, the new prime minister, has pledged to stop the flow of boat people into the country by shifting the work to overseas centers. This has resulted in a decline in volumes in the detention centers that Serco manages under contract for the Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

On another front, in January, Serco's health provision in Suffolk was criticized after a four-month NHS review found services were being provided safely but improvements were needed. The areas for improvement were reported to include staff morale, recruitment and retention, communication with GPs and commissioners, equipment stores and procedures at the Ipswich care co-ordination centre.

Serco has been implementing a major corporate renewal plan as part of its negotiations with the Cabinet Office. As well as extensive management changes, and a renewed and refreshed code of conduct and governance, Serco has committed to creating a  separate division for its U.K. Central Government work to increase focus and openness for Government as a collective customer.

Other key measures include:

• Enhancing transparency and access, with reporting of operational and financial contract KPIs, and greater engagement of customers at contract and departmental level.
• Establishing formal Ethics Committees and Ethics Officers in each division, accompanied by the redesign of its whistle-blowing process to the highest international standards
• Measuring the progress of attitudinal change throughout the organization with ongoing independent culture and ethics reviews.

Axelos was incorporated in July 2013, 51% owned by Capita, 49% by the Cabinet Office but governed by a separate board from the parent organizations. The company will be fully operational from January 1, 2014. Axelos is the owner and accreditor of the best practice methodologies.

Its aims are:

• Quality: to raise the quality bar for products and services delivered to clients for the full Best Management Practice portfolio
• Relevance: to improve the relevance of the portfolio to the business, e.g. demonstrable value to managers, CIO and CEO
• Growth: to grow internationally in both public and private sectors
• Innovation: to adopt new ideas and standards in communication, learning and management
• Collaboration: to be a social business with open and transparent communications and to integrate with other frameworks.

Axelos is looking to achieve these objectives by:

• Extensive use of digital channels including enhancing the existing Best Management Practice web site for multiple channels built on top of an enhanced document management core. Use of digital channels will include gamifying the learning tools and provision of information and material for practice tests on-line and as apps for smart devices
• Growing the online communities of practice that contribute to enhancements and development of the portfolio. It has already run product workshops in London, for attendees from the wider international ITSM and PPM communities to discuss subjects such as international tailoring and ITIL improvements
• Develop multi-national offerings for major organizations and industries.

The company is based at Capita’s offices in London. Capita provides Axelos with back office services such as HR and payroll, F&A and IT. Currently, there are 10 employees but Axelos is recruiting.

Axelos is in effect the new custodian of the best practice portfolio. The jewels in its crown include the widely adopted ITIL and PRINC2 methodologies. The JV is the vehicle to free the custodian from public sector constraints on commercialization to grow the revenues from this valuable portfolio. There is potential to grow the best practice products into international standards.

As a new company, Axelos is very privileged to have a strong portfolio of products which also lends itself well to client interactions in communities of practice and social networking, where ideas for enhancements can take shape faster, and be of value immediately after they are formally released. There is much value in collaborative and crowd-sourced innovation that Axelos can potentially tap into. There are already communities of practice based around the existing products, and Axelos will be looking to take them along its journey of evolution.

The challenge for the JV is to develop a new lasting operating model that successfully combines collaborative innovation, and crowdsourcing - benefiting from the wisdom of its communities of practice, while growing the business commercially. There are some good practice examples in the open source software community. Axelos should be looking at all options assessed against the requirement of protecting its IP.

The restructuring of NPS division last year, to focus more on services, combined with a number of contracts starting in 2012 helped improve NPS revenue. Contracts that started in 2012 include:

• The Blue Badge Improvement Scheme
• Athena - the managed service for data sharing by Essex Police and six other forces

NPS is also more agressively marketing its housing software internationally, reporting expansion in New Zealand, Australia and Canada, though no growth data was provided.

NPS' £170m contract with C2k to provide an Education Cloud for all schools in Northern Ireland was a major win for the company. Other contributors to the division's revenue improvements include managed services contracts with mid-market customers in the UK, including Christian Aid, Almac, Doosan, Wolseley, AAH Pharmaceuticals and the Driver and Vehicle Agency in Northern Ireland.